The Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers on Maternal Autonomy in Nigeria
Airah Balogun · MS International and Development Economics · University of San Francisco · October 2025
Overview
This paper evaluates the effect of Nigeria’s SURE-P MCH (Subsidy Reinvestment & Empowerment Programme — Maternal and Child Health) conditional cash transfer program on women’s household decision-making autonomy. Using a difference-in-differences design with three waves of DHS microdata, the study asks whether a major CCT program targeting maternal health improved women’s autonomy in treated states relative to untreated states.
Key Results
| Specification | DiD coefficient | p-value |
|---|---|---|
| Short-run (2008 → 2013) | −0.006 | 0.57 |
| Long-run (2008 → 2018) | −0.007 | 0.48 |
| National trend 2013 → 2018 | +0.029 | < 0.01 |
The SURE-P program had no statistically significant effect on women’s autonomy in treated states. The national improvement in autonomy between 2013 and 2018 reflects broader socioeconomic developments — rising female education and greater household participation — rather than the program’s direct effects.
Data and Methods
- Survey data: Nigeria DHS Individual Recode (IR) files — 2008 (pre-program), 2013 (short-run post), 2018 (long-run post)
- Design: Difference-in-differences (DiD) quasi-experiment
- Treatment: SURE-P implementation states — Anambra, Bauchi, Kaduna, Niger, Ondo, Zamfara
- Outcome: Women’s autonomy index from three DHS items (healthcare decisions, large purchases, visits to relatives)
- Controls: Age, education, household wealth, urban residence, regional fixed effects
- Estimation: Weighted regressions using DHS sampling weights; standard errors clustered at state level
Policy Implications
- Financial incentives alone are insufficient to transform gender relations. The SURE-P cash transfer did not shift women’s decision-making power within households.
- Complementary investments are required. Sustained improvements in autonomy require parallel investments in education, information access, and gender-inclusive community programmes.
- CCTs need to be paired with social-norm interventions that directly enhance women’s capacity to make informed health and economic decisions.
Citation
Balogun, A. (2025). The Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers (SURE-P MCH Program)
on Maternal Autonomy in Nigeria. IDEC, University of San Francisco.
Replication package: github.com/Airahb/surep-maternal-autonomy